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Bob McCarthy: It's all about the money

Poloncarz maintains advantage, but Casilio makes gains
Poloncarz v Casilio
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BUFFALO, N.Y. (WKBW) — Labor Day has passed, schools are back in session, and the political season is officially under way. But despite a tough August, Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz still holds a large advantage in his bid for re-election.

Right now, the airwaves are largely devoid of the inevitable glut of campaign ads, but they’re coming. And as in any political campaign, money to pay for them will prove key. As of the July report to the New York State Board of Elections, Poloncarz maintained a healthy $628,000 with a lot more to come.

It’s all part of financing themes that the candidates want to emphasize – maybe Poloncarz in his county executive jacket at emergency headquarters, directing everything during various weather events over the past year – large and in charge Mark Poloncarz.

He also has a big Democratic enrollment advantage of about 135,000 voters and all the powers of incumbency – even if his quest for an unprecedented fourth term encounters what has sunk many a pol over the years – the dreaded “shelf life” factor.

Now, the big question for Republicans remains whether Republican Chrissy Casilio is building enough interest and momentum following the county executive’s series of foibles throughout August. Is it enough to stimulate the fundraising she so desperately needs?

Latest reports show her war chest at $111,000 (though sources say she is “closing” in on $300,000) – which is decent but nowhere near the $1 million most observers think is necessary in a big county like Erie.

Still – GOP sources say Casilio raised about $50,000 at an August 31st fundraiser – which is by no means record setting, but also not too bad.

She’ll need every cent of that to emphasize her views on those problems now dogging her opponent – the asylum seekers housed in local hotels and the subject of various police responses – as well as the police report filed against Poloncarz by a former girlfriend.

It also remains to be seen whether she’ll move beyond those issues – start talking about pressing problems facing Erie County and the solutions she proposes – which so far she has largely avoided.

For both sides, all this revolves around telling their stories through the funds they raise – with every indication pointing to continued success for Poloncarz – as well as at least some new donor enthusiasm for Casilio stemming from the county executive’s really bad August.