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Will Mike Johnson maintain the gavel? What to watch for ahead of Friday's House Speaker vote

While Johnson is confident that he will prevail, the reality is that more than a couple of Republican lawmakers have expressed doubts in recent weeks about Johnson's chances.
Mike Johnson
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Friday marks the beginning of a new U.S. Congress, with faces representing many communities across the nation. But a new Congress also means a new vote for House speaker.

Historically, it's a relatively simple process. But this year, simple is not guaranteed.

That's due in part because of what happened two years ago when it took 22 days and 15 rounds of voting for House Republicans to elect a speaker.

RELATED STORY | GOP congressman urges Republicans to back Mike Johnson ahead of House speaker vote

This year, current Republicans Speaker of the House Mike Johnson is favored to win and maintain the gavel, as he also has the support of President-elect Donald Trump. However, winning is not certain because of the narrow Republican majority in the chamber.

Right now, Republicans have a 220-215 majority in the House. But when it comes time to vote Friday, that majority will narrow to 219-215 because former Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz has already indicated he will not serve the term he was elected to in November.

Speaker Johnson said Thursday that it means he can only afford to lose a handful of votes if he hopes to be elected speaker on the first ballot.

RELATED STORY | After withdrawing from AG consideration, Gaetz says he won't return to Congress

While Johnson is confident that he will prevail, the reality is that more than a couple of Republican lawmakers have expressed doubts in recent weeks about Johnson's chances.

A drawn-out battle for the speaker, meanwhile, has potentially major consequences. The House of Representatives can't do anything without a speaker, and it could put Monday's electoral college certification process in jeopardy.