A hearty helping of winter for Western New York looks very likely near Thanksgiving

(WKBW-TV) BUFFALO, NY — Let's face facts, we've been "lucky" this November in Western New York. In fact, we've been really lucky.

Officially, not even a flake of snow fell through November 22 at the Buffalo airport, making it the latest start to the snowfall season since snowfall records began in Buffalo in the 1880s. And, in addition to being "flake-less," there's been a distinct lack of chill. In fact, through November 22, the average temperature for the month of 48.3 degrees makes it the warmest November to date for Buffalo going back to 1873!

And now... it's time to face another fact: we're running on borrowed time to take in our recent mild weather.

Mother Nature seems to concur here. There's a classic "cross-polar flow" that's starting to show up in the many long-range computer models that we use to forecast Western New York's notoriously tricky weather. Cold air draining down from Northwestern Canada is poised to plunge south into the northern Plains of the United States, and ultimately, in modified fashion, will head east into the Great Lakes and the Northeast.

The upper-air pattern also supports some "meteorological mischief" in the Great Lakes and the Northeast, which should be set up in the days following Thanksgiving Day. Translation: There will likely be some kind of winter storm during that time frame in the Northeast.

Often, we can look back at past performances to forecast future results (which aren't necessarily guaranteed but can be helpful in a projection). According to the Climate Prediction Center, the upper air pattern being projected does match up "nicely" with at least three other time frames in Buffalo weather history where the Lake Erie "snowy salvos" were fired up.

So you know what that may mean if, at last check, Lake Erie's water has been reported at being 52 degrees. The only other time the lake water of Erie has been so warm for November 23, was back in 1931, which by the way, coincides with the last time the average air temperature for November was so high for Buffalo. (We had 74.4" of snowfall in the winter of 1931-32, in case you were wondering).

Bottom line: there's really no getting around it. Winter is coming, and right on cue, as meteorological winter officially starts on December 1.

It's time to break out the winter gear, and unless you'd like to freeze while doing so, maybe it's also time to put up those holiday decorations!