Lake Effect Snow Warning for Northern Erie and Genesee counties from Thursday evening through 1pm Sunday. Prolonged lake effect snow event may produce 1 to 4 feet, or more, of snow in most persistent bands. High snowfall rates and thundersnow possible.
Lake Effect Snow Warning for Southern Erie County from 7pm Wednesday through 1am Saturday for heavy lake effect snow with 1 to 3 feet expected.
Lake Effect Snow Warning for Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties from 7pm Wednesday through 10pm Thursday for 7-14"+ of snow in persistent bands.
A blast of cold air is will cross Lake Erie starting late tonight - and it could bring more than 3 feet of snow to some areas of WNY by Sunday. The lake band will impact the Southern Tier tonight through Thursday. The band settles near Buffalo Thursday night through Friday. On Saturday the band will shift further northward and on Sunday the band shifts south and breaks apart.
Lake Erie is 53 degrees which ties the RECORD for this date. The lake is 4 degrees above normal.
When forecasting lake effect snow, we look at a number of different weather parameters. First, is the air temperature cold enough to support snow? The answer is yes for the end of the week. It looks like air temperatures at 5,000 feet will be about 15 to 20 degrees.
Next, we look to see if the Lake Erie temperature and the air at 5,000 feet has a difference of more than 23 degrees. Lake Erie is 53 degrees and the air temperature aloft will be close to 15 - so again the answer is yes.
Now, we need to check the wind speed and direction. Wind speeds should be perfect for lake effect snow and the winds look to be aligned from the surface to 10,000 feet. These winds are expected to be out of the southwest which would put the lake band right over Buffalo. The winds will be blowing over the entire stretch of Lake Erie and picking up abundant moisture, which could produce significant lake effect snow northeast of the lake.
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