Meteorologists are keeping their eye on the extended forecast past day 10. What we know right now is that there are more questions than answers, but in general, the trend is that colder air is coming, and so is snow, but where, when, and how much are all up for grabs.
What are the questions?
- Where will the trough (low-pressure system) set up?
- How cold will it get?
- When will it happen?
A couple of long-range models we can view have been very inconsistent with all of the above questions. Not only are the models inconsistent with each other, but run-to-run consistency isn't much better.
In the video attached, the GFS model is much colder, with snow and lake-effect snow impacting WNY from Thursday, November 21, to Saturday, November 23. The Euro model remains above freezing, with only rain during the exact same time frame.
Looking further into next weekend and Thanksgiving week, colder air is more likely. But, how cold will it be and where will the low be placed in order to not only receive snow in WNY but how much and where.
So, we can't say much about what happens past day 10 right now, but for what it's worth, I'll be getting my snow tires on, putting the snow brush in the car, and testing the snow blower. I mean, on average Buffalo receives its first measurable snowfall by November 8th and its first inch of snow by November 18th, so we're due!
