There are a few different elements involved in the forecast of what's left of Debbie.
- Where the track actually goes
- How much moisture is across WNY
- When does the cold front cross WNY
All of these get intertwined and with more variables, the tougher forecasting is, especially further out from an event.
For the last several days the Excessive Rainfall Outlook has far Western New York under a Marginal risk. Eastern WNY under a Slight risk and Potter County in Pennsylvania in the Moderate risk. Potter County in PA is under a Flood Watch from 2 a.m. Friday until 2 a.m. Saturday where the potential for 3-5" of rain is possible.
In general, the region will have less rain for counties along the Lake Erie shore and more rain for our eastern counties and likely will range between .5"-1.5".
In the video above, it describes the discrepancies between several computer models and what is most probable.
As our 7 Weather Team tracks radar we'll keep you informed on what to expect.
